The Effects of Technological Change on Jobs, Employment and Expectations
RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Essen
Background
The past four decades have witnessed dramatic changes in the structure of employment: the rapid increase in computational power has led to large-scale reductions in employment in jobs which are intensive in routine tasks. These jobs have been shown to be concentrated in middle skill occupations.
A large literature on labour market polarisation characterises and measures these processes at an aggregate level. However to date there is little information regarding the individual worker adjustment processes related to routine-biased technological change.
Research question
This research project examines how the polarization of jobs and wages in Germany has developed over the last four decades. We focus on both the risks of technological progress, e.g. job destruction and wage losses, and the opportunities, e.g. job creation and wage increases at the upper and lower end of the wage distribution.
The analyses take into account the regional dimension and the role of specific technologies and expectations.
Approach
In order to answer the research questions of the research project, we use different micro data sets, especially the administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency, and the Socio-Economic Panel.
These data are evaluated using microeconometric methods to analyze the effects of technological change on labor market outcomes and adjustment processes at the individual level.
